Norway’s inner combustion engine automotive gross sales (petrol and diesel) are crashing to now only a handful per 30 days, and the remainder of the world will comply with quicker than you would possibly assume.

The nation has been main electrical automobile adoption for years and it goals for all new automotive gross sales to be electrical by 2025.

In 2020, all-electric cars have hit a record 54% market share of Norway’s whole new automobiles gross sales in 2020.

These days, EV market shares have elevated not solely with extra electrical automobiles hitting the market but in addition due to gasoline and diesel automotive gross sales crashing.

Final month, petrol automobiles had a 4.8% market share and diesel automobiles had a 4.7% market share, representing fewer than 1,500 automobile gross sales in March (by way of Norway’s Highway Visitors Data Council):

Passenger automobiles Quantity in March 2021 Market share in March 2021 Market share in March 2020 Market share to date in 2021 Market share identical interval in 2020
Solely petrol engine 730 4.8% 7.7% 5.1% 9.5%
Solely diesel engine 723 4.7% 10.0% 5.8% 10.8%
Hybrids all 5 244 34.2% 26.3% 36.4% 29.2%
Electrical automobiles 8 618 56.2% 55.9% 52.8% 50.5%

That’s lower than half the market share that the inner combustion engine automobiles had throughout the identical interval final yr.

With many new all-electric fashions hitting the market within the subsequent few years, together with higher-volume EVs, Norway is anticipated to hit its goal of electric-only gross sales by 2025 with none subject.

However Norway is a small and wealthy nation with sturdy EV incentives, and the auto trade is attempting to determine how quickly the remainder of the world will comply with.

Most trade analysts consider that international EV market share gained’t hit greater than 30% by 2030.

BNEF, one of many most-followed projections for EV adoption, places all-electric market shares at 28% within the passenger automotive phase in 2030.

Electrek’s Take

As most Electrek readers know, I consider the remainder of the world will comply with quite a bit faster than what most analysts are predicting.

I do know that most individuals consider Norway just isn’t an ideal instance and I perceive why, however I believe there’s nonetheless significance in shopper notion.

It’s not nearly new EV gross sales, it’s additionally about gasoline automotive gross sales crashing.

As EV gross sales are rising and it turns into clear that it’s the longer term, patrons are extra cautious about shopping for new gasoline automobiles, even when they’re not able to make the bounce to electrical automobiles simply now.

The resale worth for inner combustion engine automobiles goes to crash, and that’s going to have an effect on shopping for habits.

Subsequently, I consider that even when the trade won’t be prepared to provide sufficient EVs, I believe market shares will develop quite a bit quicker than most individuals anticipate as a result of gasoline automobile market shares will crash.

FTC: We use earnings incomes auto affiliate hyperlinks. More.


Subscribe to Electrek on YouTube for exclusive videos and subscribe to the podcast.