Elon Musk has prompt throughout Tesla Battery Day that the corporate might produce a quarter-million Cybertrucks a yr: “There’s most likely room for at the least unit quantity of 250,000 to 300,000 a yr, perhaps extra.”
We already know that the variety of pre-orders is excessive – properly over half 1,000,000, perhaps even 600,000 in response to Musk – however is there such a excessive demand for the Cybertruck, particularly for the reason that gross sales can be restricted to North America?
For comparability, Tesla Mannequin 3 by no means crossed 200,000 yearly within the U.S. Tesla Mannequin Y nonetheless has to show itself (we do not know its gross sales outcomes), however anyway, at 250,000 or extra, the Cybertruck can be probably the most standard Teslas and EVs typically.
As a result of the manufacturing of the Cybertruck is scheduled to start out in 2021, and we now have to incorporate the ramp-up part, the total manufacturing most likely won’t be achieved sooner than sooner or later in 2022, perhaps even 2023.
In line with the Automotive Information‘ article, the Ford F-Collection pickups famous in 2019 greater than 896,000 gross sales, whereas the Ram pickups had been at 633,000.
We are able to guess then that promoting 250,000+ of Tesla Cybertrucks is theoretically doable, however Tesla must conquer 10-20% of the market share.
By the best way, the Cybertruck is predicted to be categorised as a medium-duty pickup (just like the Ford F-250 Tremendous Responsibility).
The remainder of the world won’t get such an enormous electrical pickup and has to attend for an eventual smaller, however equally cool model.